Abstract: On Friday, INE crude oil fell for three consecutive days, but the overall decline was limited. BecOPEC crude oil pricesause China and the United States will negotiate on trade issues, the market's worries about Sino-US trade disputes have eased, and oil prices have been supported in a short time. However, currencies in emerging markets are still relatively weak, which is generally a negative factor for crude oil demand.
At the end of 208, Qatar announced that it would withdraw from the OPEC organization in 209. The blink of an eye has reached the time when Qatar’s withdrawal decision takes effect. OPEC said that Qatar’s decision was final. Qatar accounts for 0.6% of the global oil market. It has been 57 years since it joined OPEC. Why did it suddenly withdraw from the group?
However, the bank may admit that the recently announced weak economic activity data, escalation of geopolitical risks, and March inflation data did not release positive signals. For these reasons, the wording of the statement is expected to be slightly more cautious, and most committee members are expected to support the very gradual removal of the easing plan.
Domestic refined oil prices have experienced four consecutive declines and remain at the 6 yuan era. Month 2: Gasoline down by 75 yuan/ton, diesel down by 65 yuan/ton; Month 6: gasoline down by 50 yuan/ton, diesel down by 490 yuan/ton; month 0: gasoline down by 540 yuan/ton, diesel down by 520 RMB/ton; February 4: gasoline will be reduced by RMB 25/ton, and diesel will be reduced by RMB 20/ton. The current domestic gasoline prices are around 7 yuan.
Data released by the U.S. EIA on Wednesday showed that EIA crude oil inventories fell by 2.96 million barrels in the week ending September 0, a decline for five consecutive weeks, which was far below the previous expectation of an increase of 2.56 million barrels. Although EIA crude oil inventories have recorded a decline, spot crude oil prices have gone out of the roller coaster market in the short term. After the data was released, the US oil and Buyou oil market showed a roller coaster market, which rose rapidly after falling and then fell again, and finally pulled up. And the trend in the latter half of the night is basically the same.
The rapid rise in prices put the issue of demand destruction back on the agenda. The main forecasters began to lower their demand growth estimates for the second half of 208 and 209. Rising crude oil prices have pushed oil prices in the UnitedOPEC crude oil prices States and other crude-consuming countries to sensitive levels. As far as the United States is concerned, gasoline prices at US gas stations have been rising in recent weeks and may continue until the end of the summer driving season. The average gasoline price at gas stations across the United States will reach $4 per gallon, which has attracted more attention from politicians. The continued increase in crude oil prices may further push up gasoline prices.
The well-known financial blog site Zerohedege commented that API data showed that crude oil inventories fell less than expected last week, gasoline inventories unexpectedly increased, WTI crude oil rose slightly, and RBOB gasoline futures fell. Analysts said that fundamentals show that the oil market will continue to tighten, and geopolitical uncertainty is still one of the factors contributing to higher oil prices.
OPEC member states are caught in a typical prisoner’s dilemma. If they continue to expand production and oil prices go down, everyone will not make a profit; if they sacrifice their market share and limit production to raise oil prices, everyone is good. When the oil price was about to exceed the minimum break-even price of US$25 in 206, after several rounds of negotiations, the four OPEC members agreed to reduce production and destocking in order to stabilize international oil prices.
The weekly report released by the CFTC of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that since late February last year, hedge funds and fund managers have held net long positions in the three major crude oil futures contracts of the New York Mercantile Exchange, ICE Boiler and ICE US Oil. Almost always maintained above 0 billion barrels.