In addition, before the non-agricultural announcement in May, according to the pricing of interest rate futures, the probabiliThomson Reuters crude oil spotty of the Fed’s rate hike in June has dropped by nearly 20 points. Although it is still at a high level of 70%, it has been firmly established in just one week. As long as there is suspense, the possibility of the black swan event that unexpectedly did not raise interest rates in June is gradually increasing, which shows that the non-agricultural data in May is very important.
Venezuela faces a series of potential disasters that may lead to an accelerated decline in oil production. Full-scale debt defaults, US sanctions, and asset seizures by creditors are three terrifying factors. At this point, a decline in the country's oil production actually looks likely.
Cutz said that a multi-faceted military attack on Venezuela may be the best solution. In addition, some dissidents and former officials in Venezuela also support regime change. Florida Senator Rubio Marco
Shale oil stimulation engine-The Permian Basin in the United States is hitting the upper limit of production increase faster than expected. The demand for light oil is relatively limited. Coupled with transportation pressure, oil prices in some key producing areas have already seen significant discounts, or they may give Energy industry profits and global markets have a huge impact.
However, from a year-on-year perspective, the consumption changes of OCED, which is more price-sensitive, played a key role in stimulating or easing the growth rate of demand. In other words, non-OCED countries are responsible for the overall upward trend of oil consumption, but OCED countries have a greater impact on the year-on-year growth changes surrounding this trend.
However, cooperation with Iran in the field of oil trade has certain uncertainties. After allThomson Reuters crude oil spot, it is currently in trade negotiations with the United States, and China has promised to increase imports of American energy. Even if Iran’s supply source is completely cut off, there are doubts about whether other crude oil suppliers can quickly fill the gap.
The increase in imports of US oil by India, Japan and South Korea cannot make up for the decline in US oil imports, but at least it can provide some relief to US oil exporters and also allow the US to win some crude oil export markets. It is simply persuading state-owned refineries not to buy U.S. oil instead of taxing. Once the tax is imposed, the losses suffered by the United States will be incalculable. At that time, the United States may have to scratch its head in order to make up for the losses in the market.