Another factor is the U.S. crude oil production. When our focus was on the Iran issue, the U.S. did not step down to increase production for a moment. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s EIA released its monthU.S. crude oil production has the smallest increase in the past two decades?ly output report on Monday, May 4th. In June 2008, shale oil production will increase by 780,000 barrels/day year-on-year to 780,000 barrels/day, a month-on-month increase of 40,000 barrels/day.
According to Reuters, Saudi Energy Minister Falih previously stated that demand for crude oil in the second half of this year has risen. This week, OPEC's views on a sound production policy decision are becoming increasingly consistent. A source familiar with the talks said on Wednesday that Saudi Arabia is trying to persuade other OPEC members to increase production.
my country's crude oil imports fell by 5%, which means that global crude oil demand will be reduced by nearly 0 million barrels per day. At the same time, Goldman Sachs warned that the interruption of crude oil supply in Canada and Nigeria is gradually easing, which also means that international crude oil supply is also Will rise, so it poses a risk to its oil price forecast of US$50/barrel in the second half of the year. In the short term, the market may face an oversupply of 2 million barrels per day of crude oil, which will undoubtedly put significant pressure on international crude oil prices in the second half of this year.
Just a few days before Novak went to the United States, Novak and Falih co-chaired the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna and reached a decision to increase production at the meeting. Although it was announced at the meeting that there would be a nominal increase of 0 million barrels per day in production capacity, market participants generally believed that the actual increase in production would be lower than this level.
However, experts speculate that this crude oil gap is likely to be filled by the United States. Because OPEC is already cutting production, it is impossible to say that there is excess power to fill such a large crude oil gap. Then if the United States fills this gap, this This means that a large number of crude oil market shares will fall into the hands of the United States, and the United States will grab a large piece of meat from the entire Middle East. As a result of this, OPEC's future will face an unmanageable situation. The current OPEC reduction in production can also cope with the increase in US production, but if the US further annexes the market, it may be difficult for OPEC to stop the US.
JXTG Energy, Japan’s largest refiner, plans to resume imports of Iranian crude oil as early as the end of this month or early February. HoweverU.S. crude oil production has the smallest increase in the past two decades?, the Japanese side can only temporarily resume crude oil trade, because the exemption period issued by the US authorities is up to 80 days, and the shipping industry has required oil wholesalers to stop importing Iranian crude oil at the end of February.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq, Russia and other oil-producing countries have the ability to increase production in the short term, of which Saudi Arabia has about 2 million barrels of idle capacity per day. The JMMC informal meeting held in early June did not make it clear whether it would increase production, but only called for the maintenance of the current partnership and continuous adaptation to current market changes. On June 7, Venezuelan President Maduro also stated that once OPEC decides to increase production, Venezuela can increase production by 500,000 to 0 million barrels per day.
According to eVestment data, from January to December 208, investors have invested $0 billion in these commodity-based funds, the highest level since the third quarter of 206.