The Iranian student news agenToday's closing crude oil pricecy ISNA recently reported that Iranian Energy Minister Zangane will participate in OPEC and non-OPEC production monitoring meetings, which will be held in Argentina in September. Zangane’s goal is to participate in this conference to maintain Iran’s crude oil market share. The meeting is scheduled for six weeks before the United States officially imposed sanctions on Iran.
Many people may think that in the future crude oil market, the situation in the Middle East will be the key factor leading the trend of crude oil. Indeed, because of Iran’s restraint, the situation in the Middle East has not evolved into a nuclear weapons race, but it does not mean that In the future, Iran will not withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement, and apart from Iran, the United States intends to impose sanctions on Venezuela, which will also cause further escalation of the Middle East crude oil supply panic.
Among them, Israel may bear the brunt. Relations between Israel and Iran have been tense for years. Iran once claimed to destroy Israel, while Israel is worried about Iran’s growing military power in Syria. In addition, once Iran possesses nuclear weapons, it will also break Israel’s nuclear monopoly in the region.
②The market expects that EIA crude oil inventories will decrease by 2.77 million barrels at night, down from the previous value of 0 million barrels. Gasoline inventories are expected to decrease by 2.94 million barrels from the previous value by 70,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 5.54 million tong, the previous value decreased by 2.98 million barrels.
After the lead was washed out, I suddenly realized that the internal factor that triggered the decline in oil prices may be that the global economic recovery peaked at noon, unable to support sustained strong growth in demand, and thus unable to support high oil prices. Funds were net mostly at the peak of oil prices. Lighten up gradually. From a technical perspective, this is called top divergence, and more popularly is to increase shipments. Most of the time, the fund's net worth is basically the same as the oil price trend, but when the two deviate, it is possible to give birth to a big market. For example, the sharp decline in 2008 and 20 years has seen similar situations. Therefore, the remarks that OPEC may increase production in the future are only the fuse of the recent disk collapse, not the root cause. The supply side's negative impact on oil prices may begin to relay in the second half of the year, such as the continued increase in production in the United States, and the end of OPEC and non-OPEC production reduction agreements. Under the current slump, the technical board is prone to stampede. In the industry chain, the drop in oil prices will actually compress the profits of refineries, especially in the Asia-Pacific market. Since there is a time difference between the purchase of raw materials and the sale of downstream finished products, the time difference can bring profits to the refinery in the process of rising oil prices, but in the process of falling, the time difference is detrimental to the profit of the refinery. Whether it is the technical trend of the disk or the fundamentals of global crude oil, the impact of the plunge in oil prices will gradually appear. Therefore, this round of decline should not be regarded as a simple technical correction.
As for why certain concessions were made, Mnuchin also gave the reasons: the reduction in Iranian oil supply has become one of the factors affecting crude oil prices. In other words, it is still possible forToday's closing crude oil price India and other Iranian oil buyers to continue to import Iranian oil while obtaining the US exemption.
The International Energy Agency also believes that if oil-producing countries such as OPEC and Russia cannot make up for the loss of crude oil supply from countries such as Venezuela and Iran, the international crude oil supply and demand situation will become tense. Related market institutions estimate that OPEC's spare capacity may drop to 2 million barrels per day, which may make it difficult for OPEC to cope with supply shocks. For example, in Venezuela, where the economic crisis has occurred, output has fallen to a year low.